G1 Tips — Day 2 of The Championships

Randwick, April 12th

Australian Oaks (2400m) — Race 5

Who should be favourite here?

Ohope Wins had every possible chance in the Vinery Stud Stakes. It was a bunched finish and they didn’t run time — is that really the form to be taking into an Oaks? She’s already had her grand final when winning the New Zealand Oaks. Does she have another one in her, for a different stable, in a different country? I’m not sure.

Profoundly comes through a race where they did run time. She showed good late strength and there were big margins. Getting to 2400m could take her to a new peak.

They should start closer together in the market. I’ll be with Profoundly and Tommy Berry.

Arrowfield Stakes (1200m) — Race 6

Not a Group 1 — but worth touching on.

Tempted’slast three over 1200m performances have been elite. She could be the best sprinter we have. She takes on her own age under set weights and should be shorter than $1.70.

Last start she was stretched to 1400m to tick off the maiden Group 1 — and she got the job done. Don’t expect her to be asked to go that trip again anytime soon.

She should win and justify the short odds.

Sydney Cup (3200m) — Race 7

Plenty of chances here.

Three horses near the top of the market have drawn wide — Mr Monaco (15), Campaldino (13), and Soul Of Spain (11).

Mr Monaco was enormous last start, covering extra ground without cover — he had no right to win, but he did. He’s on an upward spiral and is firmly in the mix.

Soul Of Spain and River Of Stars both come through the Tancred Stakes — that’s the best lead up in the race. River Of Stars was strongest through the line but Soul Of Spain is better at the weights. Not much between them.

The wildcard is Machine Gun Gracie. By historical standards, the set-up is awful — Bart Cummings would be turning in his grave. Third-up from a 1900m lead-up into 3200m.

But I think she can do it. Trust the camp — Ben, Will, and JD Hayes know exactly what they’re doing.

She sat outside the leader last start and her final furlong was her best. Have we seen the best of her? I don’t think so. There is potential that she could relish the extra distance and does hit this race at exactly the right time - down in the weights.

She’s my top tip — each-way odds.

Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m) — Race 8

Pride Of Jenni lines up — at least we know there will be tempo.

She’s found one or two better in both runs back at the All Star Mile and Australian Cup. That’s solid form, but is she suited back in trip? I doubt it.

Treasurethe Moment finished third in last year’s Cox Plate — that alone suggests she’s well placed against her own sex. Solid win last start on the back of a slow tempo, good margin to second. She maps to receive every chance and should be at her peak third-up. She’s right in this.

Lady Shenandoah brings the best form lines for mine. She chased home Joliestar at her first two runs this preparation — wide draw second-up but loved the late strength. Last start she was no match for Autumn Glow, but that is good form.

She gets James McDonald on for the first time this preparation, draws low, and gets to a mile for the first time in the campaign.

Peak performance incoming.

Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) — Race 9

The best race of the Autumn Carnival.

And to anyone suggesting Autumn Glow is dodging — look at this field. Sir Delius, Aeliana, and Dubai Honour are all world class.

Compare that to who Sheza Alibi beat in last week’s Doncaster Mile - Autumn Boy and Militarize, who both gave her weight.

Autumn Glow gets to 2000m for the first time from a good draw. We could see something special.

She will land in front of key danger Aeliana — I don’t think that mare can turn the tables from there.

Sir Delius peaks here, just as he did third-up in the Turnbull Stakes last Spring. He’s the danger.

But this is all about Autumn Glow. She will make it 12 from 12.

She’s the best horse in the country and will justify her odds-on quote.

Good luck if you follow,

Blake Johnston (BJ)

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