G1 Tips – Vinery • Tancred • Australian Cup

Written By Blake Johnston

Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) – Rosehill R6

Over the past three years, the A-grade Kiwi fillies have had the wood on ours in this race.

  • Prowess won the Bonecrusher beating older horses before coming here and winning this

  • Orchestral won the NZ Oaks en route to also winning this

And now we get Ohope Wins and Belle Cheval, following a very similar path.

It’s no coincidence — our better fillies are often kept to shorter trips, while the Kiwi fillies are bred and trained to stay.

👉 I think we see much of the same here.

🐎 OHOPE WINS

She’s been brilliant.

Overcame wide draws to win her last three, and last start in the NZ Oaks, she came from last down the middle to overhaul them — proper class.

Now:

  • 35 days between runs

  • Back in trip

  • Wide draw again

But she lands in Australia and will have her first start for with Chris Waller + J-Mac.

She will have to overcome the draw and tempo — but she’s the starting point and hardest to beat.

🐎 BELLE CHEVAL

This is where I’m leaning.

Wide draws her past two:

  • Worked early and still too strong two back

  • Then charged home in the $4m Kiwi, just missing in a fast race behind Well Written

She doesn’t have the ideal platform jumping to 2000m, but she comes through a proper form reference.

👉 Expect her to land in front of Ohope Wins and give a kick.

She’ll look the winner at the furlong.

🐎 PANOVA

Best of the Aussies.

Last start:

  • Restrained from a wide draw

  • Hit the line strongly against the boys

Extra trip suits, and she’s trending toward her peak.

She’s right on track for the Australian Oaks, and wouldn’t shock if she wins this on the way through.

✅ Verdict – Vinery Stud Stakes

BELLE CHEVAL (WIN)
(Ohope Wins the danger, Panova next best)

Tancred Stakes (2400m) – Rosehill R8

Everything sets up for Aeliana to peak here.

🐎 AELIANA

Backs up off a workmanlike Ranvet win, but it had merit.

She ran down Linderman, which is no easy task when he and Nash Rawiller control the race.

Now:

  • 4th-up

  • 7-day back-up

  • Up to 2400m

A similar setup to her Australian Derby win — her career peak prior to this prep.

Two runs back she sat close and stretched Autumn Glow (best mare in the world) — none of these can match that.

👉 Expect J-Mac to be positive early and land in the first four, likely in front of Dubai Honour.

🐎 DUBAI HONOUR

Very good horse — but:

  • Now an 8YO

  • Likely not the same horse as 2–3 years ago

Yes, he won this race last year… but the opposition:

  • Duke De Sessa (2nd)

  • Vauban (3rd - will contest this race again on the back of a strong first-up win)

  • Arapaho (4th)

  • Circle Of Fire (5th)

None of those match Aeliana.

He’ll likely settle behind her — and I can’t see him beating her from there.

✅ Verdict – Tancred Stakes

AELIANA (WIN)
Looks an odds-on chance and should take care of these.

Australian Cup (2000m) – Flemington R8

This is a proper race with multiple angles.

🐎 BIRDMAN

Back a better horse this prep.

  • Won well second-up

  • Dominant last start

Now 4th-up at 2000m — peak setup.

Maps perfectly… but:

👉 Can he absorb the pressure from Pride Of Jenni?

🐎 PRIDE OF JENNI

Impossible to line up.

Looked like she was going to be beaten a furlong in the All-Star Mile, but dug deep to fill a placing (3rd).

She couldn’t break them at a mile…

👉 Maybe 2000m allows her to create that gap mid-race?

Hard to trust — but she’ll make it tough.

🐎 TOM KITTEN

Travelled like the winner in the All-Star Mile and got the job done.

Great ride from Craig Williams, and he’ll need something similar from a wide draw.

He’s in form.

🐎 LEICA LUCY

This is it — D-Day.

  • Strong first-up run

  • No luck second-up (wide draw)

  • Now 3rd-up at 2000m

She’s a NZ Oaks winner, so the trip suits.

Second prep with Waller, better draw, and her Empire Rose run behind Pride Of Jenni shows she’s good enough.

👉 If she gets the right run, we’ll see her best.

✅ Verdict – Australian Cup

LEICA LUCY (WIN)
Peak setup, right trip — ready to show it.

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Blake Johnston

Blake Johnston is an Australian horse racing analyst, professional punter, and founder of The Leg Up Australia, a leading platform providing horse racing tips, betting strategy, and market analysis for Australian racing.

Before working full-time for punters, Blake spent years inside the betting industry, working with major bookmakers including bet365, UBet (Tabcorp), Unibet, and TopBetta (now BetMakers). His role involved compiling markets, assessing winning probabilities, and understanding how bookmakers frame prices — experience that now shapes his analytical approach to betting.

This industry background gives Blake a rare perspective on how betting markets are created, where prices can be wrong, and how disciplined punters can identify long-term value in horse racing markets.

Blake is also the 2024 Tipster of the Year (TheGreatTipOff) and hosts one of Australia’s most popular horse racing podcasts, where he breaks down races, discusses betting strategy, and helps punters understand the thinking behind professional wagering decisions.

Through The Leg Up, Blake provides:

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Blake’s philosophy is simple: successful punting isn’t about chasing winners — it’s about finding value, managing risk, and beating the market over time.

His work focuses on structured form analysis, speed maps, race shape, and market intelligence, helping everyday punters approach betting with the discipline and framework used by professionals.

Today, The Leg Up Australia has built a community of thousands of punters who follow Blake’s insights to bet smarter and understand the game behind the game.

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Rosehill Black Book – Future Winners (March 21)