Value Bet Calculator: is it value?
Convert any price into a winning chance (implied probability) and back again, then compare your rating with the bookie's price to see your edge. Free to use, built by The Leg Up, the 2024 Tipster of the Year.
Check a price
How it works
Chance = 100 ÷ price, and price = 100 ÷ chance (a 25% chance = $4.00). $4.20 means the market gives it a 23.8% chance. If you rate it a 33.3% chance ($3.00), your edge is +9.5 points. Return per $1 = your chance × market price − 1. Even a value pick loses most of the time when its chance is under 50%, so stake small and stick to your bank.
Think of a coin flip.
Heads or tails is a 50% chance, so the fair price is $2.00. Now imagine three different prices on the same coin.
Racing works the same way. Backing a winner at unders still costs you over time, and a value pick that gets beaten today comes out ahead in the long run if the rating is right. That's why every tip we give is about the price, not just picking the winner.
How to tell if a horse is value
A price is just a winning chance written another way. Divide 100 by the price and you get the chance the market is giving that horse. $4.00 means 25%. $2.00 means 50%.
A horse is value when you rate its chance higher than the price suggests. If you have it at $3.00 (33%) and the bookie is offering $4.20 (24%), you have a +9 point edge. Back enough of those and the edge shows up over time.
Price to winning chance table
| Price | Winning chance |
|---|---|
| $1.50 | 66.7% |
| $2.00 | 50.0% |
| $2.50 | 40.0% |
| $3.00 | 33.3% |
| $3.50 | 28.6% |
| $4.00 | 25.0% |
| $5.00 | 20.0% |
| $6.00 | 16.7% |
| $8.00 | 12.5% |
| $10 | 10.0% |
| $15 | 6.7% |
| $21 | 4.8% |
| $31 | 3.2% |
| $51 | 2.0% |
Bookie prices include a margin, so the chances in a race add up to more than 100%. That's why a fair price is usually a little longer than the market.
Common questions
How do I convert a price into a percentage?
Divide 100 by the price. $5.00 = 100 ÷ 5 = 20%. $1.80 = 55.6%.
How do I convert a percentage into a price?
Divide 100 by the percentage. A 25% chance = 100 ÷ 25 = $4.00. A 40% chance = $2.50.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the price on offer is bigger than the horse's true chance of winning. You can be on a value horse that loses. It's the long-run edge that counts.
What does the edge figure mean?
It's your rated chance minus the market's chance, in percentage points. +5 means you rate it five points more likely to win than the price says. Negative means the market has it shorter than you do (unders).
Where do The Leg Up's rated prices come from?
Every runner in our full previews gets a rated price from our own ratings. Our Best, Value and Pro Tip picks show a live bar comparing our chance with the market, and it turns red if the price shortens past ours.
See where we find value every day →
18+ only. Tips and analysis, not financial advice. Only bet what you can afford: set your betting bank first and stick to it. For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.