G1 Preview - QLD Derby & KS Cup
It’s Friday afternoon and the Eagle Farm track is currently rated a Heavy 8, but with drying conditions we can expect a much better surface come Saturday. We’ve got two G1’s on the card and they are both ‘tough’ with $5 the field in both.
🔍 QUEENSLAND DERBY (2400m)
SOLID GOLD (1st) won her maiden two back before winning in stakes grade in New Zealand. She was slightly back in trip last start and was given no hope from too far back, the leader won. She could have went to the Oaks in seven days but the stable have decided to take on the boys again, the rise in distance is a positive. She’s untapped and looks hard to beat.
MONOPLOSTIC (2nd) was shuffled back at a key stage two back and then last start he hit the line in the best last 800m, 600m, and 400m of the meeting over 2100m when beating the older horses. He was given a good ride saving ground from the back but it’s never easy for a three-year-old to beat hardened stayers. He should relish the extra trip and this is his grand final, expect him to be spot on.
PROVIDENCE (3rd) has found the line well in his past couple of runs and has been firm in betting. He draws well with James McDonald in the saddle and is giving every indication that the extra trip will suit.
ONE STEP CLOSER (4th) had no favours with a gap between runs in the Rough Habit Plate, forgive that. Well supported in the Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby. He can hit back.
Suggested Bet: SOLID GOLD (win)
🔍 KINGSFORD-SMITH CUP (1300m)
HEADLEY GRANGE (1st) is flying this preparation but has proved just a couple of lengths from the A-Grade horses. He shows up here back a notch (even though it’s G1 WFA) and we’re getting double-figure odds from a good draw, it doesn’t seem right. He’s had a nice tick-over trial and has had no luck covering extra ground at his past three, expect him to get a more economical run here and he’s got a good record over this trip.
SPLASH BACK (2nd) had no luck when running into traffic first-up but made amends last start when well supported on a heavy track. Does the drying track bring her back to the field? Probably, but there will still be sting out of the ground and she’s in career best form.
LINEBACKER (3rd) was backed as if unbeatable last start but couldn’t get the job done. He was a gap between runs and did sit closer to the fast tempo than the quinella, he can only strip fitter. He’s good enough at his best and maps to receive every possible chance.
ROTHFIRE (4th) was outstanding winning the Doomben 10,000, you couldn’t make an excuse for anything that finished behind him because he was simply too good! If he wasn’t a rising nine-year-old he’d be $2.20 here on the back of that win. Respect.
Suggested Bet: HEADLEY GRANGE (EW)
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Good luck if you follow,
BJ
