G'day Punters,
It's the race that stops the nation, and I've been through all 24 runners.
Every horse has a rated price from me. Where the market is bigger than my price, that's value. Where it's shorter, I'm happy to leave it.
Here's who I'm with, who I'm against, and a write-up on every runner in the 2026 Melbourne Cup.
Melbourne Cup 2026: the quick take
Flemington Race 7 · 3:00pm AEDT Tuesday 3 November · 3200m · $10.2 million
Track: Good 4 on Sunday, Soft 5–6 expected · Rail: out 3m · Forecast: possible morning shower, clearing, 20°C
✅ Win bets: #12 HOPEWELL ROCK and #10 GOODIE TWO SHOES
✅ TLU Top 4: 12-10-20-4 (Hopewell Rock, Goodie Two Shoes, Point Of Law, Middle Earth)
✅ Trifecta: 12-10 / 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23 / 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23 (180 combinations)
✅ First 4: same legs, with all 11 runners in the fourth leg (1,440 combinations)
Hopewell Rock and Point Of Law are my equal top-rated runners at $7.50. Point Of Law is already favourite, so the value is with Hopewell Rock. Goodie Two Shoes ran second in this race last year and I've got her at $14. The market has her much bigger.
The biggest overbets on my numbers? Juja Kibo and Shockletz.
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Melbourne Cup runner by runner
1. SONS AND LOVERS (barrier 3)
Jockey: Dylan Browne McMonagle · Trainer: Joseph O'Brien · 57.5kg
My price: $31 · Market (Monday): $19.00 · Unders
Second in the Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown last start, behind a horse that led all the way. He won a Group 2 at Longchamp over 2800m in July. He's topweight with 57.5kg. Dylan Browne McMonagle rides from barrier 3 for Joseph O'Brien. A sound stayer, but the weight makes it hard.
Gear: Winkers first time, Equicast first time
2. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (barrier 18) · IN OUR EXOTICS
Jockey: James McDonald · Trainer: Joseph O'Brien · 57kg
My price: $16 · Market (Monday): $8.50 · Unders
Won the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m in July, coming from four lengths back at the 300m. Fourth in the Irish St Leger last start behind the top-class Scandinavia. A genuine stayer, and James McDonald rides 57kg from barrier 18 for Joseph O'Brien. On our numbers the market has him a bit short, but he's in our exotics.
Gear: Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time
3. KNIGHT'S CHOICE (barrier 2)
Jockey: Robbie Dolan · Trainer: John Symons & Sheila Laxon · 56.5kg
My price: $67 · Market (Monday): $34.00 · Unders
Won this race two years ago at $91 and hasn't won since. He ran third in the Herbert Power, beaten 0.21 lengths, but finished 14th in the Caulfield Cup last start. Robbie Dolan rides 56.5kg from barrier 2. He'd need a return to his best.
4. MIDDLE EARTH (barrier 1) · TLU TOP 4
Jockey: Mark Zahra · Trainer: Ciaron Maher · 56.5kg
My price: $16 · Market (Monday): $15.00 · Even
Third in this race last year with 54.5kg, closing well. This preparation he's raced in the Underwood, Turnbull, Caulfield Cup (9th) and Cox Plate (8th), with all of it aimed at today. He carries 56.5kg, two more than last year. Mark Zahra rides from barrier 1 for Ciaron Maher. Proven at the race, and he's in our Top 4.
5. VAUBAN (barrier 22)
Jockey: Jordan Childs · Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott · 56.5kg
My price: $91 · Market (Monday): $51.00 · Unders
Sixth in this race last year, and unplaced in his past three Cups. Ninth in the Geelong Cup on his return. Jordan Childs rides 56.5kg from barrier 22. On our numbers his best is behind him.
Gear: Tongue tie again
6. ENFJAAR (barrier 8) · IN OUR EXOTICS
Jockey: Ray Dawson · Trainer: Roger Varian · 56kg
My price: $17 · Market (Monday): $23.00 · Overs
Third in the Caulfield Cup, beaten a length after sitting handy from barrier 1 and fighting on. He won the Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood before that. His Caulfield Cup run is among the best lead-up form in the race. The 3200m is new, as he hasn't raced past 2412m. Ray Dawson rides 56kg from barrier 8 for Roger Varian.
Gear: Equicast first time
7. ROYAL SUPREMACY (barrier 21)
Jockey: Ben Allen · Trainer: Ciaron Maher · 56kg
My price: $67 · Market (Monday): $51.00 · Unders
Led and won the JRA Cup at Caulfield in September, then led in the Caulfield Cup and was beaten before the turn, finishing 15th. Ben Allen rides 56kg from barrier 21 for Ciaron Maher. Needs a big turnaround.
8. WINE DARK SEA (barrier 23)
Jockey: Damian Lane · Trainer: Harry Charlton · 56kg
My price: $81 · Market (Monday): $41.00 · Unders
Raced up on the speed from a wide draw in the Caulfield Cup and tired to finish 11th. He won the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer at Newbury in August. Damian Lane rides 56kg from barrier 23, another wide draw. Well outside the main chances on our numbers.
Gear: Equicast first time, front concussion plates again
9. ASTERIX (barrier 6)
Jockey: Jye McNeil · Trainer: Chris Waller · 55kg
My price: $126 · Market (Monday): $51.00 · Unders
Finished 12th in the Caulfield Cup after being slow away and hampered. He ran third in the Naturalism before that. Jye McNeil rides 55kg from barrier 6 for Chris Waller. Needs to improve a lot.
10. GOODIE TWO SHOES (barrier 19) · WIN BET
Jockey: Wayne Lordan · Trainer: Joseph O'Brien · 55kg
My price: $14 · Market (Monday): $26.00 · Overs
Second in this race last year with 51.5kg. She has 55kg this time but she comes in with better form: she won the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over 2816m in August. She was last of 10 at Leopardstown last start, but she settled well back in a race where the leader won, and we're forgiving it. Wayne Lordan rides from barrier 19 for Joseph O'Brien. The market has her at a big price, which is why she's a win bet.
Gear: Front concussion plates off first time
11. JUJA KIBO (barrier 14)
Jockey: Sam Clipperton · Trainer: Ciaron Maher · 55kg
My price: $31 · Market (Monday): $12.00 · Unders
Won the Metropolitan at Randwick, then the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on Cox Plate Day with a strong run from off midfield. He drops from 58kg to 55kg. Sam Clipperton rides from barrier 14 for Ciaron Maher. He's in great form, but he hasn't raced past 2500m and the market has caught on. On our numbers he's too short.
12. HOPEWELL ROCK (barrier 15) · WIN BET
Jockey: Zac Lloyd · Trainer: George Boughey · 54.5kg
My price: $7.50 · Market (Monday): $10.00 · Overs
Our top pick. A lightly raced import with only 10 starts. Two back he won a handicap at Goodwood, beating Small Fry while giving him 4.5kg. Small Fry ran second to the favourite Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup, so his form lines up well with the best of the locals. Then he ran second in the Ebor at York, beaten a short margin after being about six lengths off them on the turn. He travels into his races beautifully, and with 54.5kg we think he's beaten the handicapper. The knock is that he comes in without a run in Australia, and imports without a local lead-up have a poor recent Cup record. His ratings are good enough to cover that. Zac Lloyd rides from barrier 15 for George Boughey.
Gear: Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (barrier 13)
Jockey: Declan Bates · Trainer: Tony Fitzsimmons · 54.5kg
My price: $501 · Market (Monday): $61.00 · Unders
Ran 16th in this race last year. He's finished well back in all three runs this preparation, including 11th in the Geelong Cup. Blinkers go on. Declan Bates rides 54.5kg from barrier 13. Our lowest-rated runner.
Gear: Blinkers first time
14. SOUL OF SPAIN (barrier 5)
Jockey: Tommy Berry · Trainer: Chris Waller · 54.5kg
My price: $31 · Market (Monday): $31.00 · Even
Eighth in the Caulfield Cup, beaten 4.7 lengths after being tightened for room early and overracing. Before that he was third in the King Town Stakes and seventh in the Metropolitan. Tommy Berry rides 54.5kg from barrier 5 for Chris Waller. Not a likely winner, but he can run a place in this company.
15. ZAHRANN (barrier 11)
Jockey: Ben Melham · Trainer: Ciaron Maher · 54.5kg
My price: $31 · Market (Monday): $26.00 · Unders
Won the Group 3 Naturalism at Caulfield in September, then dropped out on the heavy track in the Turnbull. Sixth in the Caulfield Cup after drifting back, running one of the fastest last 400m. Blinkers go on for the first time. Ben Melham rides 54.5kg from barrier 11 for Ciaron Maher. He needs to find more over 3200m.
Gear: Blinkers first time
16. SO YOU ARE (barrier 7) · IN OUR EXOTICS
Jockey: Rachel King · Trainer: Bjorn Baker · 54kg
My price: $26 · Market (Monday): $13.00 · Unders
Four wins in a row, the latest in the Bendigo Cup six days ago. He races on the pace, drops from 58.5kg to 54kg and has a good draw in barrier 7 with Rachel King riding for Bjorn Baker. The 3200m is new and he's backing up quickly. His ratings are good, but they don't put him in the top group here. Too short for us to back to win, but he's in our exotics.
17. FUTURE HISTORY (barrier 12)
Jockey: Jamie Melham · Trainer: Gavin Hickman · 53.5kg
My price: $51 · Market (Monday): $51.00 · Even
Ninth in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup after covering a lot of ground from barrier 14. Before that he ran second in the JRA Cup and fourth in the Herbert Power. Jamie Melham rides 53.5kg from barrier 12. Ran 15th in this race in 2023. Looks to be racing for minor money.
18. JAMES J BRADDOCK (barrier 24) · IN OUR EXOTICS
Jockey: Craig Williams · Trainer: Joseph O'Brien · 53.5kg
My price: $23 · Market (Monday): $19.00 · Unders
A lightly raced stayer with seven starts. He ran third in the Epsom Derby in June, then sixth in the Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown last start. He gets in with 53.5kg. Craig Williams rides for Joseph O'Brien, but he's drawn the widest gate, barrier 24. He's in our exotics.
Gear: Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time
19. KIZLYAR (barrier 20)
Jockey: Beau Mertens · Trainer: Joseph O'Brien · 53.5kg
My price: $71 · Market (Monday): $41.00 · Unders
Won over 4013m at Royal Ascot in June, so the trip won't trouble him. He was backed into $3.80 favourite for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but finished 11th after sitting just off the pace. Winkers go on. Beau Mertens rides 53.5kg from barrier 20 for Joseph O'Brien. Hard to have after that run.
Gear: Winkers first time
20. POINT OF LAW (barrier 9) · TLU TOP 4
Jockey: Ethan Brown · Trainer: Ciaron Maher · 53kg
My price: $7.50 · Market (Monday): $6.50 · Even
Won the Geelong Cup on 21 October, racing on the pace and fighting all the way. Three wins from five starts, and he drops from 55kg to 53kg. That Geelong run was a big step up on his English form, and lightly raced horses don't always back that up straight away, but he's clearly improving. Ethan Brown rides from barrier 9 for Ciaron Maher. We have him equal top-rated, but the market already has him favourite, so he's in our Top 4 and exotics rather than a win bet.
Gear: Standard bit first time, lugging bit off first time
21. STRICTLY BUSINESS (barrier 4)
Jockey: Dean Yendall · Trainer: Thomas Carberry · 53kg
My price: $201 · Market (Monday): $61.00 · Unders
A VRC Oaks winner who hasn't been near her best this preparation: 14th, 12th, then last of 16 in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Dean Yendall rides 53kg from barrier 4. Hard to make a case.
22. MR MONACO (barrier 16) · IN OUR EXOTICS
Jockey: Jabez Johnstone · Trainer: Ciaron Maher · 52.5kg
My price: $16 · Market (Monday): $26.00 · Overs
Won the Bart Cummings here on a heavy track, then ran third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, beaten 0.75 lengths after racing keenly and his apprentice losing the whip. He drops from 57.5kg to 52.5kg. Jabez Johnstone keeps the ride for Ciaron Maher, from barrier 16. Rates well on our numbers, and rain would suit him. He's in our exotics.
23. ZAKOUMA (barrier 10) · IN OUR EXOTICS
Jockey: William Pike · Trainer: Grahame Begg · 52kg
My price: $26 · Market (Monday): $26.00 · Even
Last of 11 in the Crystal Mile last start, but 1600m was far too short for him. Before that he ran fifth in the Herbert Power and sixth in the Naturalism, both solid. William Pike rides 52kg from barrier 10 for Grahame Begg. He's been set for this and looks a place chance. He's in our exotics.
24. SHOCKLETZ (barrier 17) · IN OUR EXOTICS
Jockey: Harry Coffey · Trainer: Ciaron Maher · 51kg
My price: $21 · Market (Monday): $9.50 · Unders
Won the Archer Stakes here in September, then closed well in the Herbert Power and ran second in the Tesio Stakes. She drops to 51kg. Harry Coffey is booked, subject to fitness. The market loves her, but she's never raced past 2500m and her ratings fall short of the top group. Too short on our numbers to back to win, but she's in our exotics.
My Melbourne Cup bets
Win: #12 Hopewell Rock and #10 Goodie Two Shoes. Both are well over my rated price.
TLU Top 4: 12-10-20-4
Trifecta (180 combinations): 12-10 / 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23 / 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23. A $180 outlay is a 100% bet; $20 gets you 11.1% of the dividend.
First 4 (1,440 combinations): 12-10 / 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23 / same / same. A $1,440 outlay is a 100% bet; $20 gets you 1.4% of the dividend.
Only bet what you can afford. Set your betting bank first and stick to it.
About the Writer: Blake Johnston
I'm Blake Johnston, founder of The Leg Up Australia. Before that I worked the other side of the counter as a bookmaker with Bet365, Unibet, UBet and TopBetta, and as an assistant producer at Sky Racing. I know exactly how the bookies frame their markets, and where they get it wrong.
In 2024 I was crowned Australia's Best Tipster by The Great Tipoff.
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