G'day punters,
Big Saturday. It's Stakes Day at Flemington, and there's a quality card at Rosehill as well.
Here's my Best Bet, my value bet and who I'm tipping in the Champions Stakes.
BEST BET: HORSESHOE HILL
Rosehill Race 10 (#9) · 6:05pm AEDT · 1200m
She won well second-up last prep, on the back of a good fresh run in black-type company.
Her first-up run this prep was great. She had a nice trail but needed more room at a key stage, and she should have finished a lot closer to Bruce I Am, who's gone on and won since.
Now she's second-up from a good draw, with a positive riding change. Tommy Berry jumps on for Bjorn Baker.
Looks hard to beat.
VALUE: SHOW BUSINESS
Rosehill Race 9 (#11) · 5:25pm AEDT · 1100m
She's always shown good ability. She bolted in at Kembla Grange second-up this time last year, and the rating she ran that day is good enough to win this.
Forget her first-up run. She was restrained from a wide draw and then got badly held up in the straight. Complete excuse. Her work through the line was good.
From the better draw she can settle much closer to the lead, and Zac Lloyd is in the saddle.
Right in this at each-way odds.
CHAMPIONS STAKES: AELIANA
Flemington Race 8 (#10) · 5:10pm AEDT · 2000m
She ran third in the Cox Plate, beaten under a length after having to go early from the back. Before that she was third in the Turnbull over this course and distance.
The Cox Plate was run at a hot tempo that suited the ones coming from behind. I expect a bit less speed on Saturday, and from barrier 4 she can settle closer.
James McDonald rides for Chris Waller. She'll be very hard to get past.
The quick take
✅ Best Bet: Rosehill R10 #9 HORSESHOE HILL
✅ Value: Rosehill R9 #11 SHOW BUSINESS
✅ Champions Stakes: Flemington R8 #10 AELIANA
All three are on our free Saturday tips page, with the speed maps: thelegupaustralia.com/best-bets-saturday
Want the lot?
Members get six Pro Tips at Rosehill on Saturday with prices and staking, full previews of every race at Rosehill and Flemington, our quaddies and our Black Book runners.
Start your 7-day free trial. No lock-in. Cancel anytime.
Good luck Saturday.
BJ
About the Writer: Blake Johnston
I'm Blake Johnston, founder of The Leg Up Australia. I spent years on the other side of the counter as a bookmaker at Bet365, Unibet, UBet and TopBetta, and in 2024 I was crowned Australia's Best Tipster by The Great Tipoff.
Tips and analysis only, not financial advice. 18+. Gamble responsibly. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
