Caulfield · Saturday 17 October Caulfield Cup Day full preview
Our bets, TLU Top 4, Black Book runners, speed maps and quaddies for every race. Tap a race to jump to it.
Track Good 4Rail +3m entireFirst race 12:15PM AEDT
R1
Sportsbet Classic G3
12:15PM AEDT · 2000m · $240,000
Pace GenuineClarity AverageWinning standard 86.7
BestOverlay
#3 Cignetti
$8.00Rated 84.7
Third in the Listed race at Flemington on a Heavy 10 last start and handles the wet. Draws the rail and should sit on the pace. Rates top and is too big at the price.
ValueOverlay
#6 Russian Rock
$3.80Rated 83.9
Fifth at $31 in the Group 2 here last start, beaten just over two lengths, a career best. Won his maiden on a Soft 5 and Craig Williams sticks.
Won the Listed race at Flemington on a Heavy 10 by two and a half lengths last start, a figure that tops this field. Settles back, but the wet suits and she is the one to beat.
ValueOverlay
#4 Quick Finish
$16.00Rated 84.2
Led all the way to win here last start and has won her last two. Has the speed to lead again from gate 6. Rates second and is well over the odds.
Back#2 Miss Waititi (2) · #15 Tears Of Happiness (9) · #3 Leopard Shark (8) · #5 Your Colour (12)
R3
Alinghi Stakes LISTED
1:25PM AEDT · 1100m · $200,000
Pace GenuineClarity PoorWinning standard 93.5
BestOverlay
#8 Signature Scent
$7.00Rated 92.7
Beaten a short margin in a Listed sprint at Morphettville last start, the best recent figure in the race. Should sit on the pace from gate 9. Narrowly on top in an open race.
ValueOverlay
#1 Geegees Mistruth
$2.00Rated 92.5
Two straight fifths in Group 1 sprints, beaten about two lengths each time. Drops in grade and handled a Soft 7 at Sandown. Right with the best of them.
TLU Top 48-1-7-9
Suggested betNo bet · Poor clarity
Speed map
Lead#6 Gentle Steel (1) · #5 Stardom (5)
On pace#7 Eagle Express (3) · #8 Signature Scent (9) · #2 Dance To The Boom (2)
Third in the Group 2 at Rosehill last start, the best recent figure in the race. Sits on the pace from gate 2. Deserves to be favourite but no value at the price.
ValueOverlay
#3 Willaidow
$11.00Rated 95.4
First-up from a winter break. His best form from May puts him right at the winning standard. Rates second and is big overs at the price if he is ready.
TLU Top 41-3-4-5
Suggested bet#3 Win · Fixed $11
Speed map
Lead#7 El Rocko (1) · #1 Private Eye (2)
On pace#6 Zou Sensation (5) · #3 Willaidow (6) · #2 War Machine (4)
Mid#5 Here To Shock (7) · #8 Cartoon Graveyard (3)
Back#9 Amenable (9) · #4 Hughes (8)
R6
Henley Homes Sprint G2
3:10PM AEDT · 1000m · $300,000
Pace StrongClarity GoodWinning standard 98.0
BestPositive
#2 Cavalry Girl
$2.50Rated 99.6
Just beaten in the Group 1 at Sandown on a Soft 7 last start, after winning on a Heavy 8. Loves the wet and sits on the speed. Rates clear on top.
ValueOverlay
#1 Sweynesday
$34.00Rated 94.4
Fresh from a winter break. Ran a strong figure at Gosford in May that puts him in the placings here. Rated well under his $26 price.
TLU Top 42-5-4-6
Suggested bet#2 Win · Fixed $2.50
Speed map
Lead#8 Hidden Motive (1) · #2 Cavalry Girl (5)
On pace#10 I'M Foxing (11) · #7 Don'T Hope Do (3) · #5 Bev's Nine (7)
Back#9 Regal Ambition (11) · #4 De Armas (7) · #10 Salann (6)
R8
Blue Sapphire Stakes G3
4:30PM AEDT · 1200m · $250,000
Pace StrongClarity GoodWinning standard 89.6
BestPositive
#12 Over Excited
$3.20Rated 89.9
Never got a clear run on a Heavy 9 at Flemington last start. Before that, a close second in a Group 3. Damian Lane rides. Forgive the last and she wins this.
ValueOverlay
#1 Stretan Ruler
$16.00Rated 86.8
Ran fifth in a Group 1 at Rosehill in March with a figure that would win this. Forgive his last start on the heavy. Rates second and is a big price.
TLU Top 412-1-6-10
Suggested bet#12 Win · Fixed $3.20
Black Book runner#7 JARBARDAR ($10)
Solid return. Began well and covered extra ground without cover on an above average tempo. Kept coming to be closest on line.
+ Fitter second-up. − Drawn 12 and rates 84.2 against an 89.6 standard. Not a Pro Tip.
Pace ModerateClarity AverageWinning standard 105.8
BestFuture Tip
#12 Saint George
$8.00Rated 99.1
Our Future Tip, taken at $17 and now into $8. Has more rating depth than the other horses who failed in the Turnbull and draws barrier 2 for a soft run.
ValuePositive
#2 Cosmic Crusader
$5.50Rated 105.8
Very strong last two runs and rates top. Nothing suggests 2400m is a problem. A valid favourite.
TLU Top 412-2-7-10
Future Tip bet#12 + #2 Win · Fixed
Future TipR9 #12 SAINT GEORGE – WIN @ $17 (Sportsbet) · 3 units · Now $8
Why we're backing it
Our Future Tip, taken at $17 back on 4 September and now into $8. He has more rating depth than the other horses who failed in the Turnbull, and barrier 2 should give him a soft run in transit. Note: he was re-plated and must pass a race-day vet inspection on course before he can run.
Speed map
Lead#9 Royal Supremacy (8) · #3 Treasurethe Moment (5) · #16 Zahrann (4)
On pace#4 Kingswood (20) · #2 Cosmic Crusader (17) · #8 Green Spaces (18) · #15 Soul Of Spain (13)
Mid#11 Asterix (10) · #12 Saint George (2) · #6 Middle Earth (11) · #5 Knight's Choice (22) · #18 Kings Valley (12)
Pace StrongClarity PoorWinning standard 95.6Scratched #8, #14
BestOverlay
#9 Gold Medallist
$8.50Rated 94.7
Second in the Group 2 at Flemington on a Heavy 9 last start, beaten under half a length. Handles the wet and settles midfield. Narrowly on top in an open race.
ValueOverlay
#4 Shadhavar
$6.00Rated 94.6
Second at Murray Bridge last start but rated well short of what the market expected. Craig Williams jumps on and she will be handy. Overs at the price.
TLU Top 49-4-12-10
Suggested bet#9 Win · Fixed $8.50
Black Book runner#10 TERILEE ($12)
Very good first-up run. Began well before being restrained to the back, loved the late work. Fitter for further from a better draw.
+ Second-up, up in trip, barrier 5. − Rates 91.4 against a 95.6 standard. Not a Pro Tip.
Speed map
Lead#7 Betwitchery (1) · #4 Shadhavar (9) · #2 Wrote To Arataki (10)
Back#3 Oh Too Good (12) · #11 Butternut Princess (4) · #1 Ferivia (14)
Q
Quaddies
Includes Black Book runners we rate close to the winning standard
Early quaddie · R3–R6
R38-1-7-9R413-14R51-3R62-5
Main quaddie · R7–R10
R73-4-11-8-9R812-6-1R912-2-7-10R109-4-12-10
+
Out wide
Bets and Black Book runners at other meetings
Black Book runnerBendigo R5 Misty Whisper
Began ok before being allowed to settle last, he hit the line strongly clocking the best last 400m of the meeting.
+ Best closing sectional of the meeting last start. − Check the draw and price before backing.
Clarity: Good / Average / Poor · Pace: Slow / Moderate / Genuine / Strong · Winning standard = the rating needed to win. Prices as at time of publishing. TO+ = Sportsbet TO (tote odds + 10%).
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