Randwick · Saturday 17 October
Everest Day full preview
Our bets, TLU Top 4, Black Book runners, speed maps and quaddies for every race. Tap a race to jump to it.
Big Dance Wild Card Hcp
Won a Group 3 here over 2000m in April and was fourth at Newcastle last start. Handles soft ground and draws the rail. Rates top in a race with little speed.
Ran a strong third at Dubbo last start and keeps rating close to the winning standard. Should get a nice run just off the pace.
Speed map
Reginald Allen Quality G3
Chris Waller has won three of the last five runnings with fillies who went on to win Group 1s. Beat a smart one in Affari last start and the extra distance suits. Ratings aren't dominant, so we're taking the tote.
Held up for a long way and only got clear late last start. Rates close to the standard if she gets a clear run.
Why we're backing it
Chris Waller has set good fillies for this race in the past, winning three of the past five (PANOVA, AELIANA and FANGIRL) and all subsequently won Group 1s. I'm suggesting taking top tote because she doesn't have dominant ratings, but she has potential to improve. She was a certainty beaten two back behind subsequent winner SEQUINNED, and then not everything went right last start, but she still got the job done beating a subsequent impressive winner in AFFARI. Liked the tick-over trial and I think she will relish the extra distance.
Unlucky second-up. Bit slowly away, held-up at a key stage, should have finished a clear second. Further now.
+ Gets the 1400m she wanted. − Rates 76.9, well short of the 85.4 standard. Not a Pro Tip, one to watch.
Speed map
Angst Stakes G3
Hit the line strongly first-up, then was held up at a key stage last start and still ran the best last 200m of the race. Meets Unleeshing 3kg better and should peak third-up.
Won a BM94 here over the mile in September and was fifth behind Polymnia last start. Handy from a good draw and over the odds.
Why we're backing it
I think she's flying and ready to breakthrough for the first time in a while. She hit the line strongly first-up and then was held-up at a key stage last time out, she hit the line in the best last 200m of the race when clear. She meets UNLEESHING 3kg better for that effort and should be at her peak third-up.
Very good second-up. Jumped ok before being restrained for cover, held-up at a key stage before really hitting the line late. Peaks third-up.
+ Third-up, rates within half a point of the standard. − Draws wide. She's our Pro Tip.
Speed map
St Leger Stakes G3
He's gone to a new level with Bjorn Baker. Two tough on-speed wins up in trip, the latest after a long sustained run. Won on a heavy track for his old stable. Fit and hard to run down.
Rates second best among the stayers and handles the wet. Gets back from a wide draw.
Why we're backing it
He's gone to a new level with Bjorn Baker. Needed the run three back when 37 days between runs, a stable switch and back in trip. His next two up in trip have been tough on-speed wins, including last start when he sat outside the leader and made a long sustained effort to win. With the old stable, his last win came on a heavy track, so no problems on rain-affected ground. Fit horse who will prove hard to run down.
Going well. Began ok before being restrained to the back with the race-shape against. Asked to go at the 400m and really warmed up late. Can improve sharply next time from a better draw.
+ Strong late, 2600m suits. − Drawn wide again (11) and rates 92.0 against a 99.1 standard. Not a Pro Tip.
Speed map
The Kosciuszko Restricted
Rates top on her best and has won on soft ground here. First-up from 12 weeks on a heavy track is the query, but she's over the odds.
Got into the field and rates well above his price. Each-way chance at big odds.
Speed map
Sydney Stakes G2
Won the Group 2 at Flemington on a Heavy 8 last start, right at the winning standard. Settles back but the strong pace suits.
Rates close to the leaders and is over the odds on a wet track.
Very good late. Began well before being restrained to find a spot on the three wide line with cover. No match for the winner, but she might give The Everest a shake. Further now.
+ Good draw (2) and strong late. − Same 1200m trip, and rates 94.9 against a 98.9 standard. Not a Pro Tip.
Speed map
The Everest WFA
Defending champion and the highest-rated horse in the world. Clear on the figures, but the heavy track is the one query.
Won her last five, unbeaten in four on soft ground, and draws the rail. Clear second best on the figures.
Speed map
Silver Eagle Listed
Won his last two Group 2s at Rosehill, the latest by nearly three lengths. On the speed and just shades Beiwacht on the figures.
Beat Cross Tasman last start and is heading to the Golden Eagle. Third-up and over the odds.
Very good from too far back. Blew the start and spotted the leader 6-lengths at the 400m, closest on the line. Further now with positive riding change.
+ Up in trip with a better rider. − Rates 88.4, a long way short of the 101.2 standard. Not a Pro Tip.
Very good first-up run. Began well before being restrained for cover, found a decent spot but there was no tempo, loved the late work. Further now.
+ Second-up and up in trip. − Wide draw (12) and rates 95.6 against a 101.2 standard. Not a Pro Tip.
Speed map
King Charles III Stakes G1
Won her last two, including a Group 1 here on a Soft 5. Pride Of Jenni is scratched and she's left clear on top. Too short to back.
Second in the Epsom here last start on a Soft 6. Draws the rail and is the clear danger.
Stamped himself as a genuine weight-for-age horse. He's come from last with no weight on his back, but that was the performance of a horse who is destined for better. Where do they go next?!
+ Improving fast. − Rates 96.4 against a 102.2 standard. One for later in the spring, not a Pro Tip.
Speed map
World Pool Hcp BM88
Consistent and in good order. Ran well in the Goulburn Cup, then the quinella gapped third last start behind Decorum. Third-up, best form on a heavy track.
Did enough first-up in the wrong spot. Posted figures above the winning standard on rain-affected ground last preparation and has a similar profile to Cross Tasman at the same stage.
Why we're backing it
He's a consistent horse that's back in good order. Ran well in the Goulburn Cup first-up, and that form has proved strong. Ran on well last start when the quinella gapped third, and the winner (DECORUM) is a smart horse who will head toward the Golden Eagle. He's third-up now and his previous best was on a heavy track, so the rain-affected ground won't worry him.
Why we're backing it
He did enough first-up down the straight when in the wrong spot, he thrashed the other two rivals on the inside. He posted figures that exceed the winning standard last preparation on rain affected ground over this trip and has a very similar rating profile at the same stage of his career as the current favourite CROSS TASMAN who's the one to beat. Draw is sticky but happy to gamble on him.
Very good second-up. Stayed at 1400m, jumped well before being restrained for cover. Hit the line strongly – equal to first with a gap to third. Mile next time.
+ Third-up, rates top (95.5) at the standard. − Short price. He's a Pro Tip on the tote.
Good return as a gelding. Got too far back first-up, stuck to the inside (inferior) but found the line well. Further from a better draw.
+ Fitter second-up. − Drawn 16 and rates 87.4 against a 95.3 standard. Not a Pro Tip.
Speed map
Quaddies
Out wide
Why we're backing it
I think her first-up run for the new stable was terrific. She began ok before being restrained when back in trip and 55-days between runs, she warmed up through the line to clock the third-best last 200m of the meeting. She can strip fitter, will settle closer from the better draw, and looks a sharp improver.
Good run first-up for the new stable. Began ok before being restrained, liked the finale. Further from a better draw suits.
+ Barrier 3 and fitter second-up. − Firmed from $21 to $12. Still a Pro Tip at the price.
Very good effort first-up. Began well before being restrained, was heavily backed over an unsuitable trip. Further now.
+ Was held up last start and rates within a point of the standard here. − Rider change from A Bullock to L Magorrian is a negative. Not a Pro Tip.
Clarity: Good / Average / Poor · Pace: Slow / Moderate / Genuine / Strong · Winning standard = the rating needed to win. Prices as at time of publishing. TO+ = Sportsbet TO (tote odds + 10%).
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