Rosehill Horses to Follow: 8 Unlucky Runners to Watch Next Start
Saturday at Rosehill was one of those days where the results didn't tell the full story.
Horses got held up. Horses got hampered. Some got the race shape completely against them.
Most punters will look at the finishing order and move on. That's where we find our edge. These are the 8 runners from Rosehill on Saturday 10 October I'm marking in the black book for next start.
1. Ocean Tsunami: Race 2 (SP $3.80)
This one should have won. Ocean Tsunami over-raced at stages, then got badly held up in the straight. When she finally got clear, I loved the work through the line. Forgive the run completely.
2. Street Force: Race 2 (SP $5.50)
Same race, same stable, same bad luck. Street Force is trained by Scott Singleton, just like Ocean Tsunami, and he looked to have plenty to offer before getting badly held up in the straight. With clear galloping room, he might have won. Two in the race and both held up. That would have been a long drive back to Scone for poor old Scott. Keep them both on your list.
3. Barrengarry: Race 3 (SP $3.30)
A good horse, and we still haven't seen the best of him. They went a strong tempo and his best split was still his last furlong. There's plenty under the bonnet.
4. The Machine Gun: Race 6 (SP $31)
A very good first-up run at big odds. He began slightly slow and was allowed to settle last from the outside barrier. The race was set up for him, but he didn't have much luck in the straight. Expect sharp improvement next time.
5. Paradoxium: Race 6 (SP $2)
The market wanted to be with him late, and at the furlong he looked all over a winner before he tired. He simply led too quickly and never got a breather between the 800m and 400m. Back to 1100m, expect sharp improvement.
6. King Pedro: Race 7 (SP $21)
A good return from 86 days between runs, back in trip. He began OK before being restrained, then hit the line strongly against the race shape. Expect sharp improvement next time. I expect to see him in a Melbourne Cup lead-up in the next couple of weeks, and at $101 for the Cup he might be worth a speck.
7. Sandpaper: Race 8 (SP $26)
The market liked him late, coming in from big odds. He was travelling when severely held up and hampered at the 300m. Forget he went around. He can improve sharply second-up, and an easier race would help.
8. Ellipsis: Race 10 (SP $3.70)
The market liked him first-up after a long 262-day spell. He settled back from the sticky draw and hit the line in limited room. Be slightly forgiving of the margin and expect sharp improvement second-up.
About the Writer: Blake Johnston
I'm Blake Johnston, founder of The Leg Up Australia.
I spent years on the other side of the counter as a bookmaker with Bet365, Unibet, UBet and TopBetta. I've also worked as an assistant producer at Sky Racing. I know exactly how the bookies frame their markets, and where they get it wrong.
In 2024 I was crowned Australia's Best Tipster by The Great Tipoff.
These days I'm on your side of the counter, taking my old work buddies to the cleaners.
PS. Here's what my members got on Saturday:
✅ Alabama State: Rosehill R1, WON @ $4
❌ Ocean Tsunami: Rosehill R2, 5th (held up, see #1 above)
✅ Gerringong: Rosehill R9, WON @ $3.70
✅ Fierce: Rosehill R10, WON @ $2.50
4 Pro Tips. 3 winners. 75% strike rate. +52.1 units.
And it should have been 4 from 4.
These 8 are just the ones I'm watching. My members get my Pro Tips every day, with ratings, staking and full race analysis, straight to their inbox.
Tips and analysis only, not financial advice. 18+. Gamble responsibly. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
