Weekend Racing Tips: Caulfield Guineas Day Best Bets

Written By Blake Johnston

G'day Punters,

How bloody good is life?

We've got Caulfield Guineas day this weekend, and right around the corner... the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.

The only sad thing? It brings a tear to my eye.

It'll be over before we know it!

So let's back a few winners along the way.

Rosehill, Race 1

I like ALABAMA STATE ($5).

I think he's better than this grade.

Last time in this company his win was arrogant. He carried a similar weight, sat three wide without cover, then extended to win "easy".

This prep he's had no luck in stronger grade. His last three have been behind Decorum twice, and Night Agent (Unleeshing second) - that’s bloody good form for a Midway.

He draws better here and can beat these.

Rosehill, Race 2 (The Highway)

Happy to be on OCEAN TSUNAMI ($5.50).

She's coming off a big last-start peak, winning on her home track.

And you might say, "BJ, aren't you concerned she won't reproduce?"

My answer? A stern "Nope".

Why?

Last start was her first run in seven back on dry ground, and she had the blinkers on for the first time.

Both factors suggest she can hold that rating on the back of a short break.

Good luck if you follow,

BJ

PS: Sick of guessing which tips to trust? I do the form so you don't have to. Get all my tips, Feature Race Previews and Quaddies across 5 states on a 7-day free trial. SEE DETAILS

Blake Johnston

Blake Johnston is an Australian horse racing analyst, professional punter, and founder of The Leg Up Australia, a leading platform providing horse racing tips, betting strategy, and market analysis for Australian racing.

Before working full-time for punters, Blake spent years inside the betting industry, working with major bookmakers including bet365, UBet (Tabcorp), Unibet, and TopBetta (now BetMakers). His role involved compiling markets, assessing winning probabilities, and understanding how bookmakers frame prices — experience that now shapes his analytical approach to betting.

This industry background gives Blake a rare perspective on how betting markets are created, where prices can be wrong, and how disciplined punters can identify long-term value in horse racing markets.

Blake is also the 2024 Tipster of the Year (TheGreatTipOff) and hosts one of Australia’s most popular horse racing podcasts, where he breaks down races, discusses betting strategy, and helps punters understand the thinking behind professional wagering decisions.

Through The Leg Up, Blake provides:

• Daily horse racing tips across major Australian meetings

• Saturday feature race previews and Group 1 analysis

• Black Book horses and replay analysis

• Betting strategy and bankroll management insights

• Access to a fast-growing Discord community of serious punters

Blake’s philosophy is simple: successful punting isn’t about chasing winners — it’s about finding value, managing risk, and beating the market over time.

His work focuses on structured form analysis, speed maps, race shape, and market intelligence, helping everyday punters approach betting with the discipline and framework used by professionals.

Today, The Leg Up Australia has built a community of thousands of punters who follow Blake’s insights to bet smarter and understand the game behind the game.

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