The Epsom Tips: Why Well Written Shouldn't Be Anywhere Near Favourite

Well Written is a double-figure chance in The Epsom.

The fact she was outright favourite yesterday is mind-blowing, really.

Yep, she's unbeaten, and we've all heard it before — beware of the unbeaten horse. But surely that only applies when the market hasn't latched onto them. At this stage, the market's suggesting she's the second coming of Autumn Glow.

At the weights, she'll carry 55kg — 1kg less than weight-for-age. She's the winner of one G1.

Let's put that into perspective.

Autumn Boy is the winner of two G1s, and he's finished second in three others — all to Sheza Alibi. He's been handed 55kg too, but that's 3kg less than weight-for-age. He's much better weighted in comparison.

Now, let's talk ratings.

In her short career, the only rating of Well Written's that meets the winning standard of this race came in the Karaka Millions. Compare that to Autumn Glow (last year’s winner) — her last three wins all met or exceeded the standard. Or line it up with Autumn Boy — two of his past three do the same.

In my humble opinion, Autumn Boy should be outright favourite.

But, and there's a but — I think he's well found at his current quote.

Attica is the one I've had something on. He was $9 on Wednesday, and that seemed juicy.

He's the set-up horse. Both runs this prep have been over 1400m, so he hasn't had the chance to optimise his ratings — but both measure up nicely when adjusted to the 51.5kg he'll carry here. He gets the blinkers back on, a rise in trip, and a good draw. We can expect sharp improvement third-up.

Now, for the best roughies.

I'll be including Perfumist and Panova in everything.

Earlier in their careers, Perfumist and Idle Flyer were tied together at the hip. Not much between them. Yes, I know Idle Flyer's gone on with it and won a G1 since — but across their clashes over this course and distance less than 12 months ago (1-1 between them), Perfumist meets her 5kg and 8kg better here.

Panova has a big figure over a mile at Flemington — a comparable track — from her 3yo season. She hit the line in very similar late splits to Attica last start, and has trialled well since. Can improve sharply second-up, at huge odds.

Good luck with whatever horse you decide to back.

Cheers,

BJ

P.S. Sick of backing the market's favourite just because everyone else is? That's exactly the gap I fill — form over hype, every time. Get my tips for spring. 👉 LEARN MORE 👈