Turnbull Stakes Tips: Why Aeliana Beats Sir Delius

I don't think Sir Delius should be favourite in the G1 Turnbull Stakes.

I know that sounds outlandish. But hear me out.

Current market:

SIR DELIUS at $2.80

AELIANA at $4

COSMIC CRUSADER at $6.50

I'd be surprised if anything else won.

That said, I'm expecting Saint George to be the flashing light run heading toward the Caulfield Cup.

Sir Delius was okay first-up behind Sheza Alibi — but that's the norm for him. He usually improves second-up, but his biggest peaks in Australia have all come third-up. And they've come in fast races, which he won't get on Saturday.

I expect them to be positive on him. But he's not at his absolute peak here, so don't expect him to own the race.

The horse with the fitness edge is Cosmic Crusader. He was no match for Birdman last start, who you wouldn’t put him in the same class as Sir Delius or Aeliana. Connections have indicated they felt he was ridden too close last time, so don't expect them to take the race by the scruff of the neck this time — which gives away his main advantage.

Now, here's the one I like.

Aeliana should be favourite.

She's a run in front of Sir Delius hitting this race third-up. She's ticked the heavy-track box, finishing second in the Winx Stakes behind Via Sistina on a bottomless surface. And she closed with some of the best late splits of the entire meeting second-up, behind Autumn Glow — that's as good a lead-in as you'll find.

The last two times she's clashed with Sir Delius, she's started shorter than him in the market, and beaten him home both times.

She was even accepted for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes — the run that ultimately stamped Sir Delius as one of the best 2000m horses in the country. In early betting, she was actually shorter than him, before being withdrawn on race morning.

Damian Lane won a Derby on her — a genuinely positive riding change.

She'll land right on his hammer, and I reckon she proves too strong for him late.

Aeliana is my clear top pick.

Good luck if you follow,

BJ

P.S. Sick of backing favourites just because the market says so, instead of digging into why? That's exactly the gap I fill. Get tips built on the form, not the public price. 👉 LEARN MORE 👈